Why Aren’t Our Young People Marrying? And Why Does it Matter?

Without strong families our future is bleak, and the bedrock of strong families is stable marriages. In the United States, we face a crisis: the institutional collapse of marriage. America’s marriage rate, according to the CDC, is at an all-time low. A narrowing demographic pyramid that spells economic slowdowns is on the horizon. Slower growth likely means higher rates of state dependency. This is especially the case given the declining share of income and assets young people enjoy compared to their own parents and grandparents at similar ages. As marriage rates decline, so does the birth rate. This decline has a wide-ranging impact on communities across the U.S. What is causing the decline in marriage rates? A number of problems keep young people from settling down, and the lack of ownership opportunities is a critical reason. In order to form and thrive, families need to have the prospect of economic security.

Europe is an example of what  America faces. In most European nations the declining birthrate has produced an inverted demographic pyramid; that is, older individuals within the country are going to greatly outnumber younger generational cohorts. As more individuals leave the workforce for retirement, the economic system will have to do one of two things: slow down or automate. With a dwindling workforce, capitalists will obviously choose the latter. But the tax burden to support the growing class of retirees will still, in all likelihood, fall on the average worker. America will experience a similar fate if it remains on its current path of demographic decline.

During the Coronavirus pandemic there were frequent reports of an impending “baby boom” that turned out to be a baby bust— In December 2020, CBS reported a 7% drop in births— nine months after the first lockdowns had begun. This is likely due in large part to the fact that fewer young people are married. Why would young people with excess free time but no devoted partner begin a family? In the baby boom of post-war America, a thriving economy supported affordable family formation. There was little economic anxiety and ample employment opportunities. Employment often came with unionization and good benefits—especially for men, whose earning potential has a greater impact on marriage rates both then and now. The abundance of steady jobs with reasonable hours, directly out of high school, along with decent pay and a strong dollar facilitated the baby boom. Many of these same couples had delayed starting a family due to the uncertainty of the Depression and World War II. Why wouldn’t young people behave similarly today when facing a pandemic shutting down the world economy?

There is more to the picture than just the pandemic, however. The recognition that marriages and births are decreasing due in part to economic anxiety and a lack of stability does not fit well with the conceptual paradigm of the ruling liberal order. Our elites recognize that the problem exists, but they cannot come to the conclusion that the problem may lie within the very foundations of our economic system. After all, doing so would disrupt a lucrative status quo. Progressives aren’t likely to tackle the problem, because the traditional family unit isn’t something they can vocally defend and support. This leaves the conservative movement to promote the stability of families—but don’t hold your breath for that either. Most mainstream conservatives pay lip service to the idea of defending marriage, rather the long-term trajectory of conservative economic policy has been to empower employers and investors at the expense of the economic stability of ordinary families.

The family needs a stable economic basis to thrive. In an increasingly unequal and precarious economy, individuals feel less and less able to manage their own lives. Many live with crushing debt, skyrocketing housing costs, unemployment or underemployment, and few opportunities for a real ownership stake in the system. So why wouldn’t a young person conclude that it’s not the time to tie the knot and start a family? The cultural issues conservatives prefer to talk about are real enough: secularization, the hypersexualizing of the young, and the lack of discipline and achievement among many young men to name a few. But none of this is a sufficient diagnosis. The real crisis is that young people do not trust the economic system enough to take the risk of getting married and forming a family.

This is one reason the American Solidarity Party advocates for an economy based on widely distributed ownership—preferably direct worker ownership. We have some profound cultural and political pathologies in this country, but they are tightly interwoven with distrust of our economic system. In contrast,, a culture where more young people are able to experience a stable and rewarding family life will be healthier and less volatile. Someone with a stable home life, a budding family, and an economic stake in the community is less likely to join the ranks of Antifa or the Proud Boys. Without a significant shift in how our economic system functions, however, we will likely continue to see a decline in marriage and birth rates, creating a cascading effect of social and political instability. We can’t afford to sleepwalk into that grim future.